No. 18 USC Trojans succumbed to their old ways on the road as they lost 27-13 to No. 9 Indiana Hoosiers. For Week 12, they’ll be back at home to host the Maryland Terrapins (4-6, 2-5). Luckily for bettors, the Trojans are a better team at the Coliseum.
Back as Favorites at Home
The Trojans have a 5-1 record at home this season and were the favorite four of those games. Overall, they’re a much better team at the Coliseum which is why sportsbooks have them as huge favorites.
DraftKings, Bet365 and Fanatics have USC moneyline currently at -800 and +550 for Maryland. On FanDuel, USC moneyline is at -750 and +530 odds for Maryland. Caesars Entertainment and BetMGM have yet to post their odds.
Prediction markets are also in favor of a Trojans victory. On Polymarket, 89 percent of traders have stock in the Trojans while 85 percent of traders on Kalshi are riding with USC. 88 percent of traders Fanatics Markets believe USC will win as well.
Over/Under and Total Points
DraftKings currently has the highest total points for the game at 56.5, giving -112 odds for the under and -108 for the over. Next is Fanatics at 56 points, giving both the Trojans and Terrapins -110 odds for the over/under. FanDuel and Bet365 have their points at 55.5 and have -110 odds for the over/under.
As for prediction markets, 55 percent of Kalshi traders believe over 55.5 points will be scored while Polymarket has their total points set at 51.5.
All four sportsbooks have USC as -16.5 point favorites with -110 odds to cover. 51 percent of Kalshi traders also believe that the Trojans will win by over 16.5 points. The only problem is USC’s record against the spread: 3-7 (30 percent cover rate, -4.2 ATS).
Breaking it down more, when the Trojans are the home team their record is 2-4 (33.3 percent, -1.8 ATS) but as at-home favorites they are 1-3 (25 percent, -4.8 ATS). Depending on the bettor this might be the only enticing fact – after a loss, Southern Cal’s record against the spread is 1-1 (50 percent, +7.5 ATS).
USC’s inconsistencies on both offense and defense make this game a toss up for bettors. What makes it even more tricky is how competitive the Terrapins have played against more talented teams. Here’s a look at their past three matchups:
- In Week 11, they hosted Wisconsin – a team that handedly beat USC – and won 24-21.
- In Week 10, they went into Ross–Ade Stadium and beat Purdue 34-29.
- Then in Week 9, Maryland was in a close battle with Illinois but ultimately lost 20-17.
Luckily for the Trojans, the Terrapins’ defense has struggled against high-powered offenses. In Week 6, Ohio State hung 45 points on them while UCLA put up 54 in Week 4. Heading into Week 12, the defense has allowed an average of 33.7 points per game (No. 123 in the nation), 390.4 yards per game (No. 88), 5.6 yards per play (No. 79) along with a red zone scoring percentage of 93.94 (No. 129).
If USC is to cover, they need to go back to basics. On offense, the Trojans should lean on the run game to control the clock. Then they can challenge the Terrapins’ defense vertically with their pass catchers. On defense, they need to win the turnover battle. Dual-threat Quarterback Malik Washington has eight interceptions. Containment from the outside and second level, pressure from the interior or blitzes will be key to force third-and-long situations.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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