In recent weeks, powerful storms battered the Four Corners region. The San Juan River reached some of its highest flows on record, and the Animas and Dolores rivers each logged their fifth-highest levels. Families in Pagosa Springs, Colo., in Bluff, Utah, and Navajo Nation communities now face months of recovery. Though for some observers, there was at least some hope: after years of drought, perhaps all that water would provide a meaningful boost to replenish Colorado River reservoirs, recharge aquifers, and benefit some wildlife habitat.
The gain is small compared to the Colorado River’s deficit. Some of that floodwater reached the Colorado River system. Lake Powell has risen since October 1 by about 19 feet, a gain of roughly one million acre-feet of water. Every drop counts, but Powell holds roughly 24 million acre-feet when full and is still nearly three-quarters empty. Powell and Lake Mead, the system’s two largest reservoirs, each hold less water today than at this time last year. Meanwhile, water users in Arizona, California, Nevada and Mexico face significant supply reductions in 2027 under new federal guidelines designed to stabilize reservoir storage.
Whiplash is the new normal. Colorado River flows have always varied from year to year. That variability hits hardest when reservoirs are depleted, and it affects water users who depend on unregulated streamflow. Scientists expect a warming climate to bring more intense storms while drying the basin over the long term. And despite strong El Niño conditions this year, history suggests they are not a reliable predictor of above-average Colorado River flows. After last winter’s near-record-low runoff, a second poor snow year would further stress reservoirs that remain well below capacity. It would pose a serious challenge for Lake Powell, which is dangerously close to the elevations where water can no longer pass through Glen Canyon Dam. That impact would cascade downstream to Lake Mead, triggering larger supply reductions and pushing the reservoir closer to its own crisis.
What’s needed now. The storms caused devastating damage. They also added modestly to the river’s supply, but this is a reprieve, not a rescue. The storms are not a reason to stop working on the Colorado River crisis—they are a sign that we urgently need to make progress. Federal and state managers must keep working toward durable, basin-wide demand reductions and a negotiated, consensus agreement on sharing water shortages and managing the river, one that avoids a court-imposed outcome. Congress can also help affected communities by responding to a $2 billion request made by more than 100 Colorado River stakeholders—including irrigation districts, municipal water providers, Tribes, and conservation NGOs, including Audubon—to fund projects that help people and birds by building resilience to both drought and intense storms. These investments include floodplain restoration, forest health, and water conservation and reuse projects that can replenish reservoirs, strengthen communities’ resilience to drought and flooding, and support bird habitat across the Colorado River Basin.