To consider Chelsea as underdogs in domestic competition feels alien. To a club so endowed with silverware and success over such a long period, it’s like a dirty word. Something reserved for opponents, not them.
But reality bites hard. The Blues lost their title to league and cup double winners Manchester City last term, in a season where they also suffered their second heaviest WSL defeat ever to the eventual champions.
That statement 5-1 drubbing back in February was the most obvious illustration of the gap that had appeared between superpowers. City were everything Chelsea used to be; a team relentlessly driven by title-winning standards. Every decision deliberately constructed to give them control and assert dominance.
If that was then, what is the state of play now?
This is the first WSL season to feature two unbeaten teams after nine matchdays since 2020-21. The table reads that Manchester City have the edge, but a deeper dive into the data presents a more nuanced case.
Stylistically, Sonia Bompastor’s side have levelled up this year, shifting her setup from a more direct approach towards structured positional dominance. That is something she always wanted but did not necessarily have the personnel to perfect.
To play a more territorially dominant style, pressing in a player-oriented shape, Bompastor needed legs as well as a centre-forward who could lead the press with energy. Signing Katie McCabe from Arsenal and Melvine Malard from Manchester United have made it possible. The structure on the right has far more tactical coherence.
McCabe has slotted into a back three system whereby the wing-backs operate more like inverted forwards. The effectiveness of Sandy Baltimore and Ellie Carpenter out wide have been game-changing, and Malard as the focal point has helped, too, joining forces to create an attacking unit so versatile it’s impossible to predict.
Chelsea lead every metric used to measure offensive performance, with a greater spread of goals than any other side. That fact serves a huge purpose. In a direct battle with Man City, Chelsea have more variance when mapping a route to goal and are creating a higher volume of quality chances. They are also the league’s top scorers.
No player illustrates the maturation in style better than Kiera Walsh. Known most auspiciously for her reliability from deep, the England international has been given greater license to roam forwards this season, to great effect. She is now one of the key drivers of positional overloads, taking over 35 per cent of her touches in the final third.
With over half of the season still remaining, the midfielder is one off her best goal involvements return (currently 2G, 4A) and is creating chances with more regularity than ever before.
In fact, Bompastor has engineered a means by which her side can score from almost anywhere. Right the way through the spine of this team, there are playmakers. Each emboldened with a greater desire and commitment in forward areas. Lucy Bronze has been involved in four goals in eight WSL appearances from centre-back. Carpenter has scored four times herself.
But of course such risk has to be managed against a side like Man City. Their threat can be just as potent, if not as widespread. Bunny Shaw is personally responsible for 45 per cent of their respective goal tally, which totals one shy of Chelsea’s.
In this battle of major powers, it’s likely to be the more assured attack that wins out. Collectively, Chelsea have the statistical advantage. But if there is one individual capable of debunking such theory, it’s undoubtedly Shaw.
Follow Chelsea vs Man City in our dedicated live blog from 1pm on Saturday; kick-off 1.30pm