The NBA players who appear to have regressed most so far in 2026-27

Although it’s early, we’ve got enough of a sample size to observe some league-wide trends, such as potential player regressions, which is what we’re here to discuss today.

Early-season regressions can often be just an illusion, as some players may get off to cold shooting starts, throwing off their games; they could enter a season out of shape and need a month or so to get into game shape before they start looking like their prime selves again; or they could be dealing with undisclosed early-campaign nicks.

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Regardless, this season, there have been some players who have gotten off to slow starts that have been quite suprising. So let’s talk about them.

Nikola Jokic (Denver)

2025-26 stats: 27.7 ppg, 12.9 rpg, 10.7 apg, 56.9 FG%, 38.0 3P%

2026-27 stats: 23.5 ppg, 10.8 rpg, 9.0 apg, 50.0 FG%, 23.3 3P%

It almost feels asinine to discuss Nikola Jokic in a negative light, as he remains an All-NBA-level performer and an extremely impactful player, one who makes his team 9.7 points per 100 possessions better and who ranks Top 5 in VORP and BPM. However, Jokic hasn’t been at his usual otherworldly self this season; it’s the first time in four years that he doesn’t lead the league in both of the aforementioned advanced metrics, while his Denver Nuggets are just 6-4 through 10 games and look like a Play-In-caliber team, at least as things stand now.

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That’s all to say: Jokic remains a top-level player, but he hasn’t played like the franchise-carrying supernova that he’s been since 2020-21. Could this be a sign of age and his lack of elite fitness starting to catch up to him? Or is it simply a slow start for the Serbian superstar, one in part caused by his three-point shot being ice-cold at the moment? We’re starting to think it could be a bit of the latter, as over his past five games, Jokic’s numbers are starting to look more Jokic-like at 25.8 points, 11.8 rebounds, 8.8 assists, 2.0 steals and 1.0 blocks per game.

Joel Embiid (Philadelphia)

2025-26 stats: 26.9 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 3.9 apg, 48.9 FG%, 33.3 3P%

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2026-27 stats: 17.9 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 3.7 apg, 37.4 FG%, 11.1 3P%

It’s somewhat ironic that the two players who brought the center position back to the forefront are the first two players we discuss here, but we couldn’t mention Jokic and not bring up his former rival in so many MVP races, Joel Embiid, as a player who has also regressed mightily this season.

Injuries have held Embiid to 39, 19 and 38 games over the past three seasons, respectively, and it’s entirely possible that those constant health issues have made it so we’ll never see a prime Embiid again. If that is the case, that would be unfortunate for NBA fans, as the big man was absolutely dominant in his prime, a 7-footer who could shoot, drive, post-up, create for teammates and block shots on the other end of the floor, as well as gobble up rebounds.

Embiid’s statistical regression could be a matter of usage, too, as the former Kansas standout has a career-low 28.4 percent usage rate in 2026-27. That makes sense given how loaded the team’s roster is, but even so, Embiid’s efficiency on his looks has been quite poor. Even over his past three games, which earned him praise in the media from head coach Nick Nurse and teammate VJ Edgecombe, Embiid is averaging 18.0 points, but to go with 35.6 percent shooting and 12.5 percent accuracy from beyond the arc.

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So is Embiid just done for athletically?

That can’t be ruled out, as the big man has faced so many injury issues in his career that it wouldn’t be surprising if his health issues have simply caught up to him.

Lucky for Embiid and Philadelphia 76ers fans, the team around him is loaded enough that the team might still be able to make a deep playoff run. The game plan for Philadelphia might just be to get to the playoffs with Embiid at least healthy, because as long as he’s out there, he provides a threat on both ends of the floor.

For now, though, Embiid’s regression looks downright shocking.

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James Harden (Cleveland)

2025-26 stats: 23.6 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 8.0 apg, 43.4 FG%, 37.5 3P%

2026-27 stats: 16.7 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 5.6 apg, 39.0 FG%, 38.6 3P%

It looks like age and mileage have finally caught up to James Harden, as the bearded superstar is averaging the fourth-fewest points per game of his career, and that’s despite his three-point shooting being pretty steady.

Harden’s burst appears pretty close to gone, as evidenced by the fact that he’s getting to the foul stripe just 5.3 times per game, the second-lowest rate of his career (only accounting for his post-Oklahoma City Thunder days when he was a bench player). Given how dependent Harden has been on getting free points at the free-throw line, his trouble getting them so far this season has been glaring. Even more troubling is the fact that Harden is shooting a paltry 41.7 percent from within three feet of the basket, by far the lowest rate of his time in the NBA.

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Considering Harden has never been much of a defender, his struggles in those two facets have made the 37-year-old a huge liability on both ends of the floor. Harden is currently making the Cavaliers an unfathomable 22.0 points per 100 possessions worse when he’s on the floor this season.

On the other hand, Harden is coming off a throwback performance of sorts, one that saw him go off for 32 points on nine-of-14 shooting in a 115-107 win for the Cleveland Cavaliers over the reigning champion New York Knicks, so maybe the rumors of Harden entering this season out of shape and simply needing game time to round into form are true.

We’ll find out over the coming weeks, but so far, his 2026-27 has been more troubling than not, at least if you’re a Cavs fan.

Lauri Markkanen (Utah)

2025-26 stats: 26.7 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 2.1 apg, 47.7 FG%, 35.5 3P%

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2026-27 stats: 18.0 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 2.0 apg, 38.9 FG%, 39.7 3P%

It’s starting to become fair to wonder about Lauri Markkanen’s viability as a top player on a contender, as not only have the Utah Jazz been a disaster in each of the past two seasons, but this campaign has been no better, with the team sitting at 1-11 12 games into the season.

Sure, injuries have played a part in that, but so has Markkanen’s apparent regression. Not only has Markkanen seen his numbers take a huge dip in 2026-27, but he’s once again set to miss an extended period of time (at least one month) with a new injury, this time to his hand. That’s after Markkanen has played in just 47 games and 42 games over the past two seasons, respectively.

That’s not the first extremity injury Markkanen has had this season, as the Finnish big man suffered a wrist sprain in his fourth game of the campaign, which likely played a part in his slow start. Prior to the injury, Markkanen’s numbers were a bit stronger; over his first three games, the 29-year-old averaged 20.7 points and 7.3 rebounds on 41.3 percent shooting from the floor, indicating that he was at least resembling his 2025-26 self prior to hurting his wrist.

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Markkanen deserves commendation for battling through the injury before hurting his hand and being forced to sit out, and if anything, we may be being unfair in saying he regressed. Regardless, there’s no doubt his numbers took a hit this season (his BPM, for example, went from plus 2.6 last year to plus 1.0 this season). We’ll see how he looks once he returns in late December.

Scoot Henderson (Portland)

2025-26 stats: 14.2 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 3.7 apg, 41.8 FG%, 35.2 3P%

2026-27 stats: 8.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 1.5 apg, 31.5 FG%, 22.7 3P%

Considering Scoot Henderson’s career has yet to take off all that impressively, to say he’s regressed almost feels cruel, but we had to include him on this list based not only on his declining numbers, but also on the fact that he earned a starting job on the Portland Trail Blazers when Ja Morant went down with injury, but went on to lose that starting job after just five outings.

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In those five games, Henderson averaged 9.2 points, 2.2 rebounds and 1.0 assists on 31.6 percent shooting from the field and 21.1 percent shooting from three, posting an overall plus/minus of minus-34. The Blazers went 3-2 in those five games, which is noteworthy because in all non-Henderson starts this season, Portland is 5-1. On the season, Henderson has made the Blazers 17.5 points per 100 possessions worse during his time on the floor, a brutal mark for a former No. 3 overall pick.

Even after three-plus seasons in the NBA, Henderson’s feel for the game remains poor; he’s an inefficient outside shooter, his midrange game is nearly nonexistent, and as a whole, he’s a negative on both ends. We’ll see if he’s able to turn things around this season for a Portland team with playoff expectations but at some point, Henderson might just be who he is.

Mikal Bridges (New York)

2025-26 stats: 14.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.7 apg, 49.0 FG%, 37.1 3PT%

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2026-27 stats: 5.9 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 3.2 apg, 32.9 FG%, 26.5 3P%

After winning the 2025-26 NBA championship, the New York Knicks are off to a disappointing 6-5 start this season, although that might be a bit deceiving, as the team is Top 10 in offensive and defensive rating, as well as in net rating.

Even so, the team’s record has been unimpressive, and at least part of that can be attributed to the slow start of starting swingman Mikal Bridges. Bridges, thus far this campaign, has made New York an astounding 24.7 points per 100 possessions worse during his time on the floor. According to BPM, Bridges has been a bottom-40 player in the league, a downright shocking mark considering how important his two-way impact was to the Knicks’ championship last season.

Bridges has struggled to the point that he’s been losing closing-lineup minutes to Landry Shamet, though head coach Mike Brown recently said he’s resistant to benching Bridges for Shamet outright:

“Mikal is a starter,” Brown said after his team’s 115-107 loss to Cleveland on Wednesday night, a game in which Bridges played just 17 minutes and scored two points. “It’s not a question of that. He, like a lot of players, has had their good moments and not-so-good moments. Mikal has a proven track record of playing at a pretty high level as a starter in this league. So, for me to make a panic decision and change it right now, with 10 games in or whatever we are, I’m not feeling it.”

Bridges should round into form at some point, as it’s unlikely he just forgot how to play basketball. But his start has been slow enough to warrant inclusion on this list.

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Andrew Wiggins (Miami)

2025-26 stats: 15.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.7 apg, 47.5 FG%, 41.4 3PT%

2026-27 stats: 8.7 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.5 apg, 42.2 FG%, 33.3 3PT%

Another veteran swingman who lost his starting job early this season is former No. 1 pick Andrew Wiggins, who has had a tough time acclimating to life playing alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Truth be told, at this point in his career, Wiggins might be best suited for a bench role in which he can come in, not worry about having to get teammates involved, allowing him to instead focus on doing his usual off-ball stuff, be it spotting up from three or slashing to the cup, or perhaps attack in isolation more often than he was able to as a starter. Wiggins has played with some all-time greats before, but never with one who overlaps his position as much as the ultra-high-usage Antetokounmpo does, making the fit tricky, and one that the team will need to figure out if it wants Wiggins to live up to his three-year, $64 million extension.

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A lot of it will come down to Wiggins figuring out his three-point shot again. After hitting 38.7 percent of his threes over his previous six seasons, Wiggins is down to just 33.3 percent thus far in 2026-27. Even more concerning is the fact that on shots labeled as wide open by NBA.com, Wiggins is shooting just 26.3 percent. That almost feels like this is a case of a flukish slow start rather than the Canadian forward simply forgetting how to shoot.

It remains to be seen whether Miami will be able to figure out the Antetokounmpo-Wiggins pairing, but considering Wiggins has been a starter on a championship-winning team before, it’s not difficult to envision him turning things around over the coming weeks.

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This article originally appeared on Hoops Hype: The NBA players who appear to have regressed most so far in 2026-27